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ORIENTIR | April 4. Global energy markets are in a fragile state of equilibrium as Saturday morning approaches. After wild fluctuations, oil is trying to consolidate its gains, as if listening to the events around it. This week has firmly established a new market law: it doesn't matter how much oil you have in the ground; what matters is whether you can deliver it to the consumer.

Brent crude prices are holding near psychologically significant levels, while American WTI is demonstrating unusual dynamics, at times narrowing the gap with the European benchmark. This is no longer just a price movement – ​​it is a reflection of profound shifts in the global supply chain.

The past few days have tested the entire energy market architecture. Sharp price spikes, followed by brief periods of calm, have demonstrated that the market no longer reacts to events linearly.

LNG has followed the trajectory of oil, but with even greater amplitude. Asia and Europe have effectively entered into an unspoken competition for limited gas supplies, turning every shipment of the fuel into a strategic resource.

And this is no longer so much a question of the current balance of supply and demand, but rather of growing tensions, in which the very availability of raw materials is becoming a key factor.

The past week has noticeably changed the market tone. Until recently, market participants tried to interpret events using familiar models, but now it's clear that these models are failing. The situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main source of uncertainty, and each new statement only increases nervousness.

Donald Trump says the strait will "open on its own," while Tehran emphasizes its control over the route and admits the possibility of restricting it. And the market reacts instantly—every such remark becomes a factor in pricing.

Even diplomatic initiatives are losing momentum—the UN Security Council is unable to ensure the safety of shipping. Or, more accurately, to agree on approaches to ensuring it.

Against this backdrop, a shift that only recently seemed unlikely is becoming increasingly apparent. The market is reacting less and less to production volumes and more and more to the state of logistics. A telling example is Qatar, where sea freight traffic has fallen by more than half (60% in March), forcing the country to urgently expand alternative routes.

In such conditions, a shortage occurs not when oil supplies become scarce, but when its flow is disrupted.

This logic extends to other energy sectors, creating pressure far beyond the oil market. For example, Turkey is considering raising electricity and heating tariffs in the near future. The reason is the growing burden on the budget due to years of subsidies.

What's important here is not so much the price increase itself as its inevitable consequences. Rising energy prices gradually spill over into the cost of goods and services, creating the very same "secondary effect" whereby producers, in order to maintain a balance between the costs of imported and domestic goods, impose an additional markup on their own products and services.

States are responding to challenges with increasing pragmatism. The gasoline export restrictions imposed by Russia until July 31 are aimed at maintaining domestic stability in the face of growing external pressure. Specifically, they are being implemented "to maintain stability in the domestic fuel market during a period of high seasonal demand and agricultural fieldwork, as well as in response to rising global oil prices due to the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East."

At the same time, the price declines for Iraqi (not Iranian) crude oil grades indicate that the market is beginning to redistribute flows, and even producers are being forced to adapt to the new reality. For example, the price of Basrah Heavy crude oil fell by 9.79%, and Basrah Medium by 9.61%.

At the same time, another important trend is emerging. Against the backdrop of instability in maritime routes, land routes are becoming increasingly important. Negotiations between Kazakhstan and Russia on the construction of a new gas pipeline are not just an infrastructure project, but a reflection of a broader process to increase the importance of onshore pipelines.

In other words, energy security is increasingly predicated on the ability to ensure continuity of supply outside of geopolitical turbulence.

This tension manifests itself in financial markets in its own way. Gold remains stable, remaining a magnet for investors seeking protection. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is volatile, reflecting the general uncertainty rather than offering an alternative.

A look at the geography of prices reveals how unevenly energy pressure is distributed. Hong Kong remains one of the highest fuel prices, while Tehran enjoys significantly lower prices thanks to its domestic resource base and government subsidies.

The spread of gasoline prices today clearly demonstrates the depth of the global imbalance. But this contrast speaks to more than just price differences – it reflects differences in the resilience of economies.

Against this backdrop, the countries of Central Asia appear more secure, though not isolated from external processes. The availability of domestic resources allows them to smooth out sharp fluctuations, but rising import prices are still gradually penetrating domestic markets. The only difference is that this is not a crisis, but the need to maintain balance.

The events of recent days have once again reminded us of a simple, yet often ignored, fact.

The energy market is not just about quotes and indices. It is a system on which everyday life directly depends. And if a disruption occurs anywhere, its consequences inevitably manifest themselves in the cost of transportation, food, and medicine.

The world is increasingly entering a period where resilience is determined not by abstract figures, but by the ability to ensure the flow of real resources.

Bekdurdy AMANSARYEV

Photo: ORIENT/AI